Substack Paid:Free Ratio Analyses in 2025Q3 (1/2)

Current Data and Analyses of Various Paywall Options to Help You Decide How Best to Maximize Your Channel from ZERO to ~20,000 Paid Subscribers

Special acknowledgement: Kudos and MANY thanks to Jeremy Camilloni who has no clue that he randomly spurred me a few hours ago to research and write this analysis. On his Substack channel, Jeremy writes about building the fastest, smartest, and easiest way to explore AI. He’s not just listing AI tools, he is redefining how the world discovers them. Go give whatisthat.ai a look and then become a PAID SUBSCRIBER to it posthaste!

Now, it’s time to deliver the analyses to you . . .

Based on available real user data and community analyses, here are the key points about Substack’s free-to-paid conversion rates as newsletter size increases:

For small to medium lists (from about 100 up to several thousand subscribers), the conversion rate from free to paid is typically in the 1–3% range.

As newsletters reach the thousands (1,000 and up), it’s common to see the ratio cross into the 2–5% range.

Large publications, especially those with highly engaged audiences and premium content, may approach or exceed the 5% range, but conversions consistently above 7–10% are rare and often outliers.

Substack’s own documentation has claimed 5–10% as a long-term “benchmark,” but most granular, crowd-sourced data suggests the real average is about 3%, and many established writers confirm this.

Actual user reports and public Substack data indicate that conversion rates climb gradually as the free list grows, reflecting audience warming, brand trust, and improved positioning over time.

Real-World Data Examples

One data aggregation found only 20% of publications had conversion rates over 5%. Most ranged between 2–5%.

Subreddits and newsletter writers’ own posts frequently note 1–3% for small, 2–5% for mid-sized, and rarely above 7% for large lists.

In summary:

• 100 free subscribers: 0.5–2% paid conversion (0–2 paid is typical, but sometimes 0%)

• 1,000 free subscribers: 1–3% (expect 10–30 paid, but can be a bit lower or higher)

• 10,000 free subscribers: 2–5% (200–500 paid; 5% is strong, >7% is rare)

• 100,000 free subscribers: 3–7% (3,000–7,000+ paid; 10% is extremely rare except possibly for niche, high-value lists)

How does my paywall impact my ratio?

The percentage of content that's behind a paywall has a notable impact on free-to-paid Substack subscriber conversion rates, but the relationship is nuanced and deeply affected by audience, value proposition, and content type.

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Beyond this paywall here in Part 1 of this report lies a further 2,900 words of insight, detail, and data. Actionable options for you and your Substack channel from ZERO paid subscribers to ~20,000 paid subscribers based on your channel’s base substantive content type and any special circumstances that may apply to it. Part 2 of this report contains a further 2.200 words of “Best in Class” information, bar charts, analyses, scenarios, and the precursor data you can use to generate your own dynamic scenario projection model like all ordinary course businesses have to have.